黑馬非馬, 睡人非人

Tim Ferriss在他再版的書 The 4-hour Workweek 前言裡談到這本書在出版前曾被 26 家出版商拒絕過. 書出版後, 某家大出版商老板 email 一些史上暢銷書的統計資料給他, 意思是, 這本書的熱賣絕非主流巿場的成功模式. 稍後 Tim Ferriss 談到以下這段話...

I certainly tried to set conditions for makeing a sleeper hit possible, but I knew it wasn't likely. I hoped for the best and planned for the worst.
(大意是他當時當然想儘了辦法製造能讓這本書暢銷的行銷條件, 但他認為不太可能如願. 他希望能有最好的結果, 但也預設了最壞的結果.)

Tim Ferriss用了 sleeper hit 這個片語, 它有"意想不到地賣座(熱賣，成功)"的意思. 或許你會聯想到"黑馬", 兩者意思很像, 其實不儘相同.

黑馬(dark horse) 原本是賽馬用語. 它的起源據說是19世紀時一位美國賽馬主飼養了一匹黑色千里駒. 有一天他帶著這匹黑馬到了一個陌生城鎮, 他跟人家說他的馬只是匹普通的馱馬(用來背馱東西的馬), 他就讓這馬參加賽馬. 這匹馬最後奪得第一, 而主人則獨得獎金.

後來英國作家 Benjamin Disraeli(之後成了英國首相)在他的小說(The Young Duke)裡用dark horse 做了這個上面賽馬這個比喻. Dark horse 很快就被引用在政治圈, 今天黑馬則不限於政治圈.

Dark horse跟 sleeper hit差別在哪?

新牛津字典這麼解釋:

dark horse:
1 a person about whom little is known, esp. someone whose abilities and potential for success are concealed : [as adj.] a dark-horse candidate.
2 a competitor or candidate who has little chance of winning, or who wins against expectations : a preseason dark horse as the nation's top collegiate football team.

sleeper hit:
1 a movie, book, play, etc., that achieves sudden unexpected success after initially attracting little attention, typically one that proves popular without much promotion or expenditure.222
2 an antique whose true value goes unrecognized for some time

所以前者是指人, 後者是指事/物(如電影, 書本). 前者可能會贏(不見得一定贏), 後者是出乎意料地贏(成功)了. 前者的聚焦通常會漸弱, 後者的則是漸強.